课程：宏观经济学理论III(Macroeconomic Theory III)

教师：Iván Werning教授

相关阅读资料：
 1 跨期的偏好；景气循环波动及成长之福利成本
Intertemporal Preferences; Welfare Costs of Business Cycle Fluctuations vs. Growth  

Deaton, Angus.，《了解消费》，纽约，牛津大学出版社，1992，第1章，第1.1, 1.2及1.4段
Deaton, Angus. Understanding Consumption. New York: Oxford University Press, 1992, chap. 1, sections 1.1, 1.2 and 1.4.
Lucas, Jr., Robert E. ，《景气循环模型》，牛津，Blackwell, 1987, 第3章
Lucas, Jr., Robert E. Models of Business Cycles . Oxford: Blackwell, 1987, chap. 3.

进一步阅读：
Further Readings:

Epstein, Larry G., 与 Stanley E. Zin.，〈替代、风险趋避和消费及资产报酬之时间行为：实证分析〉，《政治经济学》99卷2期 (April 1991) ，第263-286页
Epstein, Larry G., and Stanley E. Zin. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis." Journal of Political Economy 99, no. 2 (April 1991): 263-286.

Epstein, Larry G., 与Stanley E. Zin.，〈替代、风险趋避和消费及资产报酬之时间行为：理论架构〉，《计量经济学》57卷4期 (July 1989)，第937-969页
Epstein, Larry G., and Stanley E. Zin. “Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework.” Econometrica 57, no. 4 (July 1989): 937-969.

Weil, Philippe.，〈宏观经济之非预期效用〉，《经济学季刊》105卷1期 (February 1990)，第29-42页
Weil, Philippe. “Non-expected Utility in Macroeconomics.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 105, no. 1 (February 1990): 29-42.
 
    
    
 2 & 3    特定均等恒常所得；证据；过度敏感与过度平稳；Euler 均等测试
Certainty Equivalence Permanent Income; Evidence; Excess Sensitivity and Excess Smoothness; Euler Equation Tests   

Blanchard, Olivier J.与 Stanley Fisher.，《宏观经济之讲稿》，麻州剑桥，麻省理工学院出版社，1989，第6.2段
Blanchard, Olivier J., and Stanley Fisher. Lectures on Macroeconomics. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1989, section 6.2.

Deaton, Angus. ，《了解消费》，第2, 3, 4, 5章
Deaton, Angus. Understanding Consumption. Chaps. 2, 3, 4 and 5.

Abel, Andrew.，〈消费及投资〉，《货币经济学手册》，Benjamin M. Friedman 与 Frank Hahn. Amsterdam编辑，North-Holland，1990，第2册，第14章
Abel, Andrew. "Consumption and Investment." In Handbook of Monetary Economics. Edited by Benjamin M. Friedman and Frank Hahn. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1990. Vol. II, chap. 14.

Attanasio, Orazio P.，〈消费需求〉，《宏观经济学手册》，John B. Taylor 与 Michael Woodford. Amsterdam编辑，North-Holland，1999，第1B册，第11章
Attanasio, Orazio P. "Consumption Demand." In Handbook of Macroeconomics. Edited by John B. Taylor and Michael Woodford. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1999. Vol. 1B, chap. 11.

Campbell, John Y., 与 N. Gregory Mankiw.，〈消费，所得及利率：重新解释时间序列之证据〉，《NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989》，剑桥，麻省理工学院出版社，1989，第185-216页，(NBER工作底稿 第w2924号)
Campbell, John Y., and N. Gregory Mankiw. "Consumption, income and interest rates: reinterpreting the time series evidence." In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1989, pp. 185-216. (NBER Working Paper No. w2924.)

Carroll, Christopher, 与 Larry Summers.〈消费与所得平行成长：一些新的证据〉，《National Saving and Economic Performance》，B. Douglas Bernheimand 与 John Shoven. Chicago编辑，芝加哥，芝加哥大学出版社，1991，第305-343页 (NBER工作底稿 第w3090号)
Carroll, Christopher, and Larry Summers. "Consumption Growth Parallels Income Growth: Some New Evidence." In National Saving and Economic Performance. Edited by B. Douglas Bernheimand and John Shoven. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1991, pp305-343. (NBER Working Paper No. w3090.)

进一步阅读：
Further Readings:

Hall, Robert，〈生命周期恒常所得假设之推测：理论与证据〉，《政治经济学》86卷6期 (December 1978) ，第971-987页
Hall, Robert. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence." Journal of Political Economy 86, no. 6 (December 1978): 971-987.

Flavin, Marjorie，〈消费行为之调整改变对未来所得之预期〉，《政治经济学》89卷5期 (October 1981) ，第974-1009页
Flavin, Marjorie. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations of about Future Income." Journal of Political Economy 89, no. 5 (October 1981): 974-1009.

Caballero, Ricardo J，〈耐久财：缓慢调整之原因说明〉，《政治经济学》101卷2期 (April 1993) ，第351-384页
Caballero, Ricardo J. "Durable Goods: An Explanation for Their Slow Adjustment." Journal of Political Economy 101, no. 2 (April 1993): 351-384.

Romer, David，《进阶宏观经济》第2版，波士顿，McGraw-Hill，2001，第7章
Romer, David. Advanced Macroeconomics. 2nd ed. Boston: McGraw-Hill, 2001, chap. 7.
 
4, 5 & 6    预防动机的储蓄；所得波动之问题 (缓冲库存)
Precautionary Savings; Income Fluctuations Problem (Buffer Stock)  

Ljungqvist, Lars 与 Thomas J. Sargent，《递回宏观经济理论》，剑桥，麻省理工学院出版社，2000，第13及14章
Ljungqvist, Lars, and Thomas J. Sargent. Recursive Macroeconomic Theory. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2000, chap. 13 and 14.

Deaton, Angus，《了解消费》，第6及7章
Deaton, Angus. Understanding Consumption, chaps. 6 and 7.

Aiyagari, S. Rao，〈无保险之特有风险及储蓄总量〉，《经济学》109卷3期(August 1994)，第659-684页
Aiyagari, S. Rao. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Savings." Quarterly Journal of Economics 109, no. 3 (August 1994): 659-684.

Krusell, Per, 与Anthony A. Smith Jr，〈宏观经济中所得与财富之异质性〉，《政治经济学》106卷5期 (October 1998)，第867-896页
Krusell, Per, and Anthony A. Smith Jr. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy." Journal of Political Economy 106, no. 5 (October 1998): 867-896.

进一步阅读：
Further readings:

Carroll, Christopher，〈消费功能理论，包含与未包含借贷限制﹝详述之版本﹞〉，NBER工作底稿第w8387号
Carroll, Christopher. "A Theory of the Consumption Function, with and without Borrowing Constraints (expanded version)." NBER Working Paper No. w8387.

Gourinchas, Pierre Olivier 与 Jonathan Parker，〈终生消费循环〉，《计量经济学》70卷1期 (January 2002)，第47-91页
Gourinchas, Pierre Olivier, and Jonathan Parker. "Consumption over the Life Cycle." Econometrica 70, no. 1 (January 2002): 47-91 .

Zeldes, Stephen P，〈最适化消费与随机所得：确定性相等偏离〉，《经济学》104卷2期 (May 1989)，第275-298页
Zeldes, Stephen P. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence." Quarterly Journal of Economics 104, no. 2 (May 1989): 275-298.

Caballero, Ricardo J，〈收入不确定性及总财富累积〉，《American Economic Review》81卷4期(September 1991)，第859-871页
Caballero, Ricardo J. "Earnings Uncertainty and Aggregate Wealth Accumulation." American Economic Review 81, no. 4 (September 1991): 859-871.

Huggett, Mark，〈不同动因构成在不完全保险经济下之无风险利率〉，《动态经济与控制》，17卷5-6期(1993)，第953-969页
Huggett, Mark. "The Risk Free Rate in Heterogeneous-Agent Incomplete-Insurance Economies." Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 17, nos. 5-6 (1993): 953- 969.

Huggett, Mark与 Sandra Ospina，〈预防动机的储蓄总和：何时为 Third Derivative Irrelevant？ 〉《货币经济》48卷2期(October 2001)，第373-396页
Huggett, Mark, and Sandra Ospina. "Aggregate Precautionary Savings: When is the Third Derivative Irrelevant?" Journal of Monetary Economics 48, no. 2 (October 2001): 373-396.

Kimball, Miles S，〈大型与小型之预防动机的储蓄〉《计量经济学》58卷1期(January 1990)，第53-73页
Kimball, Miles S. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large." Econometrica 58, no. 1 (January 1990): 53-73.

Krusell, Per与 Anthony A. Smith Jr. ，〈消除景气循环对福利之影响〉，《经济动态评论》2卷1期(1999)，第245-272页
Krusell, Per, and Anthony A. Smith Jr. "On the Welfare Effects of Eliminating Business Cycles." Review of Economic Dynamics 2, no. 1 (1999): 245-272.

Schechtman, Jack与 Vera L. Escudero，〈所得波动问题所发生之结果〉，《经济理论期刊》16卷2期(1977)，第151-166页
Schechtman, Jack, and Vera L. Escudero. "Some Results on An Income Fluctuation Problem." Journal of Economic Theory 16, no. 2 (1977): 151-166.

Weil, Philippe，〈预防动机的储蓄与永久性所得之假设〉，《经济研究评论》60卷2期(April 1993)，第367-383页
Weil, Philippe. "Precautionary Savings and the Permanent Income Hypothesis." Review of Economic Studies 60, no. 2 (April 1993): 367-383.
 
    
    
 7 风险分摊：完全市场之理想风险分摊；证据
Risk Sharing; Complete Market Perfect Risk Sharing; Evidence   

Ljungqvist, Lars与 Thomas J. Sargent，《递回宏观经济理论》，第7章
Ljungqvist, Lars, and Thomas J. Sargent. Recursive Macroeconomic Theory. Chap. 7.

Townsend, Robert M，〈消费保险：在低所得经济下之承担风险系统之评价〉，《Journal of Economic Perspectives》9卷3期(Summer 1995)，第83-102页
Townsend, Robert M. "Consumption Insurance: An Evaluation of Risk-Bearing Systems in Low-Income Economies." Journal of Economic Perspectives 9, no. 3 (Summer 1995): 83-102.

进一步阅读：
Further Readings:

Townsend, Robert M，《中世纪之村落经济：再一般均等模式下之柏拉图映像之研究》，普林斯顿，普林斯顿大学出版社，1993，第4章
Townsend, Robert M. The Medieval Village Economy: A Study of the Pareto Mapping in General Equilibrium Models. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1993, chap. 4.

Townsend, Robert M，〈印度村落之风险与保险〉，《计量经济学》62卷3期 (May 1994)，第539-591页
Townsend, Robert M. "Risk and Insurance in Village India." Econometrica 62, no. 3 (May 1994): 539-591.
 
    
    
8, 9 & 10    保险与诱因；过去之信任；最后之含意
Insurance Vs. Incentives: History Dependence; Long Run Implications   

Ljungqvist, Lars, 与 Thomas J. Sargent，《递回宏观经济理论》，第15章，﹝尤其是第401-409页〈无保证之社会保险〉，第413-418页〈封闭系统〉，第427-435页〈最适失业补偿金〉﹞
Ljungqvist, Lars, and Thomas J. Sargent. Recursive Macroeconomic Theory. Chap. 15 [especially pp. 401-409 ("Social insurance without commitment"), pp. 413-418 ("A closed system"), pp. 427-435 ("Optimal Unemployment Compensation.")]

Alvarez, Fernando, 与 Urban Jermann，〈内生偿付限制之计量含意〉，NBER工作底稿第w6953号，1999年2月，第2及4段及第5.1小段
Alvarez, Fernando, and Urban Jermann. "Quantitative Implications of Endogenous Solvency Constraints." NBER Working Paper No. w6953, February 1999. Sections 2 and 4 and subsection 5.1.

Townsend, Robert M，《中世纪之村落经济：再一般均等模式下之柏拉图映像之研究》，第5及6章
Townsend, Robert M. The Medieval Village Economy: A Study of the Pareto Mapping in General Equilibrium Models. Chaps. 5 and 6.

进一步阅读：
Further readings:

Lucas, Jr., Robert E，〈效率与分配〉《经济期刊》102卷411期(March 1992)，第233-247页
Lucas, Jr., Robert E. "On Efficiency and Distribution." Economic Journal 102, no. 411 (March 1992): 233-247.

Atkeson, Andrew, 与 Robert E. Lucas, Jr.，〈私人资讯之有效率的分配〉，《经济研究评论》59卷3期(July 1992)，第427-453页
Atkeson, Andrew, and Robert E. Lucas, Jr. "On Efficient Distribution with Private Information." Review of Economic Studies 59, no.3 (July 1992): 427-453.

Green, Edward J，〈非可保收入之平稳及借贷〉，《跨期交易之合约准备》，Edward C.Prescott 与 Neil Wallace编辑，明尼苏达宏观经济之研究，第1册，明尼苏达大学出版社，1987，第3-25页
Green, Edward J. "Lending and the Smoothing of Uninsurable Income." In Contractual arrangements for intertemporal trade. Edited by Edward C.Prescott and Neil Wallace. Minnesota Studies in Macroeconomicsseries, vol. 1. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1987, pp. 3-25.

Kocherlakota, Narayana R，〈在无保证下之有效率风险分摊之含意〉，《经济研究评论》63卷4期，(October 1996)，第595-609页
Kocherlakota, Narayana R. "Implications of Efficient Risk Sharing without Commitment." Review of Economic Studies 63, No. 4 (October 1996): 595-609.
 
    
    
 11, 12 & 13    资产价格；套利；状态价格；建立在消费为基础的资产订价模型；证据与难题
Asset Prices; Arbitrage; State Prices; CCAPM; Evidence and Puzzles   

Ljungqvist, Lars与 Thomas J. Sargent，《递回宏观经济理论》，第7及10章，(不包含政府负债)
Ljungqvist, Lars, and Thomas J. Sargent. Recursive Macroeconomic Theory. Chaps. 7 and 10 (excluding section on Government Debt).

Cochrane, John H.与Lars Peter Hansen，〈宏观经济之资产价格探讨〉，《NBER宏观经济年刊1992》，剑桥，麻省理工学院出版社，1992，第115-165页， (NBER工作底稿第w4088号)
Cochrane, John H., and Lars Peter Hansen. "Asset Pricing Explorations for Macroeconomics." NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1992, pp. 115-165. (NBER Working Paper No. w4088.)

进一步阅读：
Further Readings:

Mehra, Rajnish与Edward C. Prescott，〈股票溢价：一个难题〉，《货币经济学期刊》15卷2期 (1985)，第145-162页
Mehra, Rajnish, and Edward C. Prescott. "The Equity Premium: A Puzzle." Journal of Monetary Economics 15, no. 2 (1985): 145-162.

Cochrane, John，〈市场之走向为何？不确定之事实及新的理论〉，《经济展望：芝加哥联邦准备银行之评论》XXI卷6期 (November/December 1997)，第3-37页，(NBER 工作底稿第 w6207号)
Cochrane, John. "Where is the Market Going? Uncertain Facts and Novel Theories." Economic Perspectives: A Review from Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago XXI, no. 6 (November/December 1997): 3-37. (NBER Working Paper No. w6207).

Kocherlakota, Narayana R，〈股票溢价之谜：它仍是令人迷惑的〉，《经济文学期刊》34卷1期(1996)，第42-71页
Kocherlakota, Narayana R. "The Equity Premium Puzzle: It's Still a Puzzle." Journal of Economic Literature 34, no. 1 (1996): 42-71.

Alvarez与Jermann，〈藉由资产报酬估计景气循环波动之成本〉，Mimeo
Alvarez, and Jermann. "Using Asset Returns to Estimate the Costs of Business Cycle Fluctuations." In Mimeo.
 
    
    
 13a  投资，Q理论；证据
Investment; Q-Theory; Evidence   

Blanchard, Olivier J.与 Stanley Fisher，《宏观经济学讲稿》，第6.3段
Blanchard, Olivier J., and Stanley Fisher. Lectures on Macroeconomics. Section 6.3.

Abel, Andrew B，〈消费与投资〉，《货币经济学手册》，Benjamin M. Friedman 与 Frank Hahn. Amsterdam编辑，North-Holland，1990，第1. II册，第14章
Abel, Andrew B. "Consumption and Investment." In Handbook of Monetary Economics. Edited by Benjamin M. Friedman and Frank Hahn. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1990. Vol. II, chap. 14.

Hayashi, Fumio，〈Tobin 的边际q与平均q：新古典理论之解释〉，《计量经济学》50卷1期(January 1982)，第213-224页
Hayashi, Fumio. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neo-Classical Interpretation." Econometrica 50, no. 1 (January 1982): 213-224.

Romer, David，《进阶宏观经济学》，第8章，第2版 (第7章，第1版)
Romer, David. Advanced Macroeconomics. Chap. 8, 2nd ed. (Chap. 7, 1st ed.).
 
    
    
 14, 15    不可逆性，固定成本；不寻常及集中投资；(s,S)规则；聚集；GE
Irreversibility, Fixed-Costs; Infrequent and Lumpy Investment; (s,S) Rules; Aggregation; GE   

Caballero, Ricardo J，〈投资总量〉，《宏观经济手册》，John B. Taylor 与 Michael Woodford. Amsterdam编辑，North-Holland，1999，第1.1B册，第12章
Caballero, Ricardo J. "Aggregate Investment." In Handbook of Macroeconomics. Edited by John B. Taylor and Michael Woodford. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1999. Vol. 1B, chap. 12.

Dixit, A. K.与 R. S. Pindyck，《不确定下之投资》，Princeton, N.J，普林斯顿大学出版社，1994，第2章
Dixit, A. K., and R. S. Pindyck. Investment Under Uncertainty. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1994. Chap. 2.

Thomas, Julia K，〈集中投资与景气循环相攸关吗？〉《政治经济学期刊》110卷3期(June 2002)，第509-534页
Thomas, Julia K. "Is Lumpy Investment Relevant for the Business Cycle?" Journal of Political Economy 110, no. 3 (June 2002): 509-534.

进一步阅读：
Further Readings:

Caballero, Ricardo J.与Eduardo M. R. A. Engle，〈解释美国制造业之投资动态：广义之方法〉，《计量经济学》67卷4期(July 1999)，第783-826页
Caballero, Ricardo J., and Eduardo M. R. A. Engle. "Explaining Investment Dynamics In U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (s,S) Approach." Econometrica 67, no. 4 (July 1999): 783-826.

Caballero, Ricardo J.与 John V. Leahy，〈固定成本：边际q之终止〉NBER 工作底稿第w5508号，March 1996
Caballero, Ricardo J., and John V. Leahy. "Fixed Costs: The Demise of Marginal q." NBER Working Paper No. w5508, March 1996.